This isn't going to be a Tour de France short on storylines. Tadej Pogačar shoots for his third straight win in the General Classification, but can the Jumbo-Visma squad take him down? Who will be putting on the green jersey in Paris? Which stages will be the ones to watch out for?

Bicycling's pro cycling pundits, Whit Yost and Joe Lindsey debate some of those burning questions ahead of the 109th Tour de France. We even got them to agree on a thing or two.

Is this finally Jumbo's year?

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Whit: While I know I’m taking my prognosticating life into my hands by not picking Slovenia’s Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) to win his third Tour de France this year, my gut keeps telling me that after back-to-back second-place finishes, this will finally be Jumbo-Visma’s year–although not with the rider we might think.

The last two Tours have been catastrophes for Slovenia’s Primož Roglič, and frankly, I think the Tour is in his head. Between his stunning collapse on the Tour’s penultimate day in 2020 (while wearing the yellow jersey) and his DNF during the first week last year, I wonder if the mental block he needs to overcome in order to win the race is just too strong.

And then there’s Denmark’s Jonas Vingegaard, who rose to the challenge last year after Roglič left the Tour and was the only rider able to come close to matching Pogačar against the clock and in the high mountains. Vingegaard, who strikes me as a bit of a cold-hearted killer, seemed unfazed by Pogačar’s strength, even attacking the Slovenian in the mountains to try and gain back some time.

I also suspect that Vingegaard’s the stronger of Jumbo’s two leaders. Yes, Roglič won the recent Critérium du Dauphiné, but on the final stage’s summit finish, Vingegaard could have easily dropped his teammate and won the race for himself. The Dane is mentally tougher, physically stronger, and therefore will give Jumbo-Visma and Denmark the Tour de France of their dreams.

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Tim de Waele//Getty Images

Joe: Totally agree about Vingegaard’s cold, cold heart, Whit. He’s the sleepy-eyed assassin that team needs, like an asset from the Jason Bourne movies who lounges in some European redoubt, waiting for the text message to Go Kill Bourne. But that’s partly why he won’t win: he doesn't give orders; he follows them. As you point out, at the Dauphiné he was level with or better than Roglič. But he dutifully played the lieutenant role. I think whatever Jumbo says about the two as co-leaders, the investment they've put into Roglič (and how he's rewarded that with great success over time) means he's always going to be Option 1A for them. So absent some major collapse by Rog—a crash or mechanical that causes him to lose time and/or get hurt—the team will be reluctant to activate Asset Jonas’s full capabilities. That dynamic cost Sky the 2011 Vuelta España, to name one example, and it could very well be Jumbo’s undoing here. Plus, if there’s one guy in pro cycling who’s as durable and unkillable as Bourne, it’s Tadej Pogačar. Mark him down for a third straight title.

Who wins green?

Joe: Jumbo might come up frustrated in the overall again, but I’m betting Wout van Aert comes home with his first-ever green jersey. What seals this for me is Wout’s range and consistency, and the gap to the competition. We think of the green jersey as a competition for sprinters, but points are awarded on all stages. And as last year’s trifecta of sprint, TT, and mountain stage wins showed, van Aert can clearly win on almost any course. He has 16 different top-10 finishes this year (with five wins) in just 22 days of racing, and was ripping at the Dauphiné. Even with reports of a knee injury in training knocking him out of the Belgian national championship race, I'm not concerned; I think they're just being super careful. There are only a handful of riders in the pro peloton with his kind of talent and versatility: Mathieu van der Poel, Tom Pidcock, and Peter Sagan, for three. But for various reasons—other goals, team responsibility, illness—none truly stand in Wout’s way.

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Dario Belingheri//Getty Images

Whit: I love me some Wout, Joe, and was heart-broken when he was forced to miss the Tour of Flanders after testing positive for COVID-19. But do you know how long it’s been since a team was able to seriously contend for both the yellow and green jerseys? It was 1997 when Jan Ullrich won the Tour and Erik Zabel won the green jersey for Team Telekom. But here’s the thing: teams were allowed to bring nine riders to the race back then and well, the late 1990s were a different era when it came to “preparation.”

Yes, Wout is versatile, but you also need to remember that there aren’t as many points available on mountain and time trial stages. Which means that if someone like Quick-Step's Fabio Jakobsen gets hot and wins three or four sprint stages, Wout might have too large of a deficit to overcome. And while there might not be a single rider able to challenge him overall, there are several riders that—by winning single stages on their own—could collectively take points away from the Belgian. So while I’d be happy to see it, I just don’t think this is the year.

What will be the wildest day from a wild first week?

Whit: Maybe I’ve been watching too many All State commercials, but I’m buying the pre-race hype about Stage 2’s chances to cause a bit of mayhem. The first road stage of the Tour is always a twitchy affair as riders are fresh, eager to win the stage, and in the case of the Tour’s General Classification contenders, stay at the front and out of trouble.

And the route of Stage 2 will do them no favors. The stage hugs the coast for much of the 202km trip from Roskilde to Nyborg, which means gusty winds coming off the North Sea—especially as the race crosses the 18km-long Great Belt Bridge—could split the peloton into echelons. And if it rains? Don’t even get me started…

Joe: Don't threaten me with a good time, Whit! I took a loooong look at Stage 2, but its propensity for shenanigans depends entirely on weather. Calm day or wind from the wrong direction? It’ll be a bust. Stage 5’s cobbles are there rain or shine, and they’re gonna cause chaos. There are 11 sections, totalling 19.4km, and the two hardest and longest come in the last 30km of the stage, which doesn't leave dropped riders much road to get back to the lead group. Much of the route is aligned north-south, which exposes it to crosswinds. And rain is more common in northern France in summer than during Paris-Roubaix’s springtime slot. Who could forget the slop-fest of 2014 when defending Tour champ Chris Froome crashed—twice! before the race even reached the cobbles!—and dropped out? This stage is the one that this year will prove the adage that you don’t win the Tour in the first week, but you sure can lose it.

What stage will unexpectedly be most consequential?

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Michael Steele//Getty Images

Joe: This is the hardest of predictions because a sleeper stage—by definition—is the one you don’t see coming. Allow me to build a case for Stage 15, on paper a sprint special. But: it comes at the end of Week 2, a hard six days where every stage features climbs and four have an uphill finish of some kind. This stage doesn’t have a lot of categorized climbs, but it’s 202km of lumpy road that’s almost never flat: terrain that just turns legs to lead. France has been baking with a heat wave and this stage could be the hottest of the race, a real sufferfest. And finally, whether riding through the Tarn Gorge mid-stage or on the last 15km to Carcassonne, this stage is built for crosswinds. Those have been a factor in this region in both the 2019 and 2020 Tours, the latter when Tadej Pogačar missed a split and lost 1:21 to other GC favorites. Much hinges on weather. If it’s calm, it’ll likely be a snoozer. But with heat and fatigue likely in play, if the breeze is gusting, hold onto your butts.

Whit: I’m staying in the first week for my sleeper stage, Joe, because lately it’s the first week that seems to have done the most damage–especially in northern France, which is where the Tour just so happens to be when it arrives after three stages in Denmark.

Stage 4 begins in Dunkirk and then heads south, parallel to France’s border with Belgium. When the riders hit the first of the day’s five categorized climbs, the race makes a sharp right turn to the west where narrow roads, more climbs, and–as they get closer to the coast–wind will greet them. After a day of travel day and one day before the cobblestones of Stage 5, I think several teams might not have their heads in the game here, and that could mean crashes, more echelons, and the likelihood for a few surprises–both in terms of the General Classification and the stage victory.

What's your must-watch mountain stage?

Whit: This year’s Tour spends a lot of time in the mountains and of the Tour’s five summit finishes, I think Stage 11 will prove to be the hardest. Only 152km in length, the stage starts in Albertville, but quickly heads into the high Alps where the riders will tackle four categorized climbs, two of which top-out well over 2,000m.

Of these, the Col du Galibier is the most famous. At 2642m, it’s the highest peak in the 2022 Tour, which means the Souvenir Henri Desgrange is awarded to the first rider to crest the summit. But on Stage 11, the Galibier isn’t the main event: the stage ends with a summit finish on the Col du Granon, which is shorter but much steeper than the Galibier, and still brings the riders well above 2,000m (2,413 to be exact). Of all the mountain stages in this Tour, this will have the biggest impact–especially since it arrives early enough in the Tour that the GC hasn’t been anywhere close to decided.

Joe: Finally, something we can agree on! There are going to be other great mountain stages in the Tour—Alpe d’Huez on Stage 12 and maybe Peyragudes on Stage 17 if the GC is still in play. But I’m with you that the most likely day for things to go really pear-shaped is Stage 11, for all the reasons you mention. I’ll add two more. The Col du Granon is not only steeper than the Galibier, it’s just the right combo of length and steepness to really shake things up. At 11.3km, it’s long enough to forge big gaps, but short enough that riders may feel emboldened to attack relatively early, as opposed to those lower-risk moves in the final kilometer that gain a handful of seconds. It’s also a consistent grade (between 8.6 and 10.8%), so there aren't really any spots to recover. At that altitude, anyone who gets shelled is not likely to get back on. The final ingredient is familiarity: the Granon has been a summit finish in the Tour just once before, in 1986—well before most of this peloton was even born. No other race has visited it recently either. So the only experience anyone has with it is maybe a training ride recon. And that’s a much different thing than race day with the yellow jersey on the line.

Which American will be most interesting to watch?

Joe: I think the most consequential role played by an American this year will be Brandon McNulty in support of Pogačar. But watching a guy make pain faces pacing a leader on the climbs is not all that exciting. So what piques my interest most is watching Matteo Jorgenson in his first Tour. I’m not sure many Tour fans even know there’s an American on Movistar, much less a 22-year-old all-around talent who was climbing with the best in the world back in February’s Tour de la Provence, and wasn’t far off at the Dauphiné. Jorgenson may support team leader Enric Mas for the overall, but if he’s given the freedom to get in breakaways you could be watching the next American stage winner at the Tour.

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Stuart Franklin//Getty Images

Whit: I love how you managed to find a way to mention two riders, Joe. Well-played! Like you with Jorgenson, I’m keeping my eyes on another American Tour rookie: Quinn Simmons from Trek-Segafredo. After winning the junior road race at the World Championships in 2019, Simmons went straight to the pros. Trek’s been bringing him along gently given his youth (he just turned 21), but this season he’s shown himself to be ready for the sport’s biggest stage. He’s aggressive, able to handle himself on varying kinds of terrain, and doesn’t have a GC captain to worry about. Assuming he’s selected (which I think he will be), I could easily see him spending a day or two in the polka dot jersey during the Tour’s first week and possibly winning a stage from a breakaway.

We’ve covered a lot of ground, Joe. Did we miss anything? Any final thoughts?

Joe: Yeah, one thing we haven't talked about is, unfortunately, the role that COVID-19 might play in this year's race. It seems crazy that this is the third edition where this is a factor, but the way the virus put mid-June's Tour de Suisse absolutely on its ear says that it's very likely it will be. To catch everyone up, fully 51 percent of the starters at Suisse dropped out—either because they personally went positive or someone else on their team did and staff pulled the entire crew as a precaution.

While that serves as a solid warning for teams to be extra careful before and during the Tour, with increasingly transmissible variants and the close living conditions in stage racing, there's a good chance that some riders or even whole teams will be forced out by positives. Finally, we don't really know what to expect from the guys who caught COVID recently. Peter Sagan is on his third bout now and reportedly suffered some long COVID symptoms this spring after Round 2. Even if a star rider is technically recovered from the initial illness, don't be surprised if he struggles to even finish the race. This is serious stuff and I hope everyone watches their health carefully.

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Whit Yost

Since getting hooked on pro cycling while watching Lance Armstrong win the 1993 U.S. Pro Championship in Philadelphia, longtime Bicycling contributor Whit Yost has raced on Belgian cobbles, helped build a European pro team, and piloted that team from Malaysia to Mont Ventoux as an assistant director sportif. These days, he lives with his wife and son in Pennsylvania, spending his days serving as an assistant middle school principal and his nights playing Dungeons & Dragons.